How the model works and what the numbers mean.
A signal is a market opportunity where the model's estimated probability of an outcome exceeds the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. Signals are not predictions — they are statistical edges identified by a quantitative model.
Over a large sample, positive-EV signals should yield a positive return on investment. Individual outcomes are subject to variance. A signal that does not land is not a model failure — it is the expected cost of operating under uncertainty.
Decimal odds represent the bookmaker's price for an outcome. They encode an implied probability:
Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Decimal Odds
A line of 2.50 implies a 40% chance of winning. Bookmakers add a margin (overround) so the combined implied probabilities across all outcomes in a market sum to more than 100% — this is the structural edge built into every price.
The model computes the statistical likelihood of each outcome independently of market pricing. When the model probability diverges sufficiently from the implied probability in the odds, a signal is surfaced.
EV measures the average return per unit staked, assuming the model probability is correct. The formula is:
EV = (Pwin × Profit) − (Ploss × Stake)
Which simplifies to the form used by the model:
EV = (Model Probability × Decimal Odds) − 1
A positive EV means the model estimates the expected return exceeds the cost of staking over many independent trials. EV is displayed as a percentage of the stake. Only signals above the configured threshold are surfaced.
EV quantifies edge, not certainty. High EV does not mean the outcome is likely — it means the market is mispriced relative to the model's estimate.
For informational purposes only. Not financial or wagering advice. Statistical model outputs do not guarantee profit. Participate responsibly — only stake what you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org